ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT ELECTIONS 2012

Cairo June 25, 2012

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Over the course of the next year to two, we can expect the following winners and losers to emerge from the election of the MB to the the Presidency.

Winners

Obviously, the Islamists and business interests aligned with them.

Initially, Quater and Sheika Mozah who were major financial and strategic backers of the MB and the Salafi Nour party.

Initially, Saudi Arabia for the same reason.

Hamas which is closely aligned with the MB

Gaza which can now expect significant relief on its borders with Egypt and support from Egypt.

Fundamentalist Islamic movements in every country throughout the middle east. This includes Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Yemen and all the Gulf Kingdoms who unfortunately think that they can control the Hydra they have helped release.

Losers

Obviously, secular interests in Egypt.

The non-MB business and social community.

The tourism industry.

Those responsible for the suppression of, and opposition to, the MB. Retribution is already being publicly discussed.

Women. Their rights and interests will clearly be rolled back to conform to the fundamentalist standards propagated by the MB.

Christians. Despite tactical moves to play "nice", the MB has an ideological animosity towards both Christians and Jews which will ultimately emerge.

The revolutionary movements who will initially be co-opted and then crushed as the MB consolidates control.

The SCAF who mistakenly believed they were still in control. They can expect an empowered MB to continue to use its ability to marshal large public demonstrations to press for increasing control over all affairs in Egypt, including internal security and military control. The military faces a structural problem since the majority of its troops come from the lower socioeconomic portion of the population which is sympathetic to the MB. There is little confidence that the troops will turn on their brothers if ordered to do so. By "blinking" yesterday and allowing the MB to win, they in essence lost. The MB is in full control.

Israel which can expect increasing problems from Hamas and, despite protestations to the opposite, it's treaty with Egypt. Any business relations between Israel and Egypt, including gas supplies, will come to an abrupt halt shortly.

The US which can expect a disruption of its flyover and Suez arrangements with Egypt as well as its security strategy via-a-vis Israel.

Any lingering hopes of regional stability in the area. All countries in the region will see newly empowered fundamentalist Islamic movements allied with the MB renew their efforts for control in their countries. We can expect to see increasing internal disruptions and security issues in all countries in the region. This will also be true in countries who mistakenly supported the emergence of the MB (Quatar and Saudi). Saudi, in particular, now has an economically failing state with basic idealogical religious differences, and the largest military force in the middle east, on its western border.

More to follow.