ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT: 2013

Thursday, August 15, 2013

EGYPT DEMONSTRATIONS CLEARING OPERATIONS

Cairo,, August 18, 2013

The western media has been presenting a distorted picture of events in Egypt.

The MB (Muslim Brotherhood) has very effective press offices in 70 countries. The government, which used to have an effective pr arm, until it was dismantled by the MB, has none.

Here is the input from our niece who is a producer of one of the leading TV News programs in Egypt.

The Media was alerted five hours before the action started to expect events and to be ready.

One hour before the clearing operation, they were invited to the two camps to film events and were given access to army helicopters to get aerial footage.

Before the action started, all demonstrators were advised by phone, text, loudspeakers and aerial flyers to leave the area. They were all assured safe passage except for a short list of specifically named individuals.

Most of the demonstrators were poor and homeless who were being fed and given 100 pounds ($15) per day by the MB to participate in the demonstration. They left when told to do so.

Women and children were bussed out of the area prior to the action starting.

Several MB leaders snuck out of the sites after first exhorting their followers to stay and and become martyrs. Several of the were captured exiting the camps.

Local media showed a restrained and peaceful well planned deployment and clearing operation. The clearing operation was broadcast live on TV all day.

Upon entering the two sites, the security forces found, among many other things, the following.

Two hundred pre-prepared executed bodies ready for deployment in the main camp. Fifty of them were stored under the main stage in the camp. It was witnessed and filmed by the media and is currently being broadcast.

Enormous caches of weapons hidden in the camps and the Mosque. Also witnessed and filmed by the media.

The MB and their Hamas militia posted snipers on roofs to shoot into the crowd in order to claim brutality by security forces. Aerial news coverage shows the snipers being taken out and/or arrested by security forces.

Pre package film footage to be released in the west by the MB showing staged violence and atrocities. Some of it was even repackaged scenes of the conflict in Syria.

A police car was surrounded by militants and pushed off a bridge into the Nile. All five policemen died. It was filmed by the media from the air.

The militants burned 25 churches. The military has offered to rebuild them all at its cost.

The militants, with the cooperation of 99% of the population are being hunted down and arrested or killed.

The brotherhood are effectively finished in Egypt. The people are furious at them for forcing the violence despite repeated attempt by the interim government to negotiate with them. They are, however, garnering sympathy and support internationally for now.

The Government is wildly popular. They said that he will not take any action without the support of the Egyptian people. Tens of millions took to the streets to support these actions. There apparently was wide spread frustration with how long it was taking after they gave approval for the government to actually proceed to clear the streets and end the disruption to daily life.

Obama and the US have no credibility whatsoever left in Egypt. Both the Russians and Chines have offered to double the US aid to Egypt. The Bright Star military exercise that Obama cancelled was at the request of the Egyptians since their forces and leadership are fully occupied internally. It was a publicity move by Obama to play to the domestic US audience.

We can't do anything and our hands are tied or else our ships won't be going through Suez and our own defense contractors will suffer by an aid cutoff.

Hope this helps explain the situation.

Monday, July 8, 2013

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT ELECTIONS 2012

Cairo June 25, 2012

-----
Over the course of the next year to two, we can expect the following winners and losers to emerge from the election of the MB to the the Presidency.

Winners

Obviously, the Islamists and business interests aligned with them.

Initially, Quater and Sheika Mozah who were major financial and strategic backers of the MB and the Salafi Nour party.

Initially, Saudi Arabia for the same reason.

Hamas which is closely aligned with the MB

Gaza which can now expect significant relief on its borders with Egypt and support from Egypt.

Fundamentalist Islamic movements in every country throughout the middle east. This includes Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Yemen and all the Gulf Kingdoms who unfortunately think that they can control the Hydra they have helped release.

Losers

Obviously, secular interests in Egypt.

The non-MB business and social community.

The tourism industry.

Those responsible for the suppression of, and opposition to, the MB. Retribution is already being publicly discussed.

Women. Their rights and interests will clearly be rolled back to conform to the fundamentalist standards propagated by the MB.

Christians. Despite tactical moves to play "nice", the MB has an ideological animosity towards both Christians and Jews which will ultimately emerge.

The revolutionary movements who will initially be co-opted and then crushed as the MB consolidates control.

The SCAF who mistakenly believed they were still in control. They can expect an empowered MB to continue to use its ability to marshal large public demonstrations to press for increasing control over all affairs in Egypt, including internal security and military control. The military faces a structural problem since the majority of its troops come from the lower socioeconomic portion of the population which is sympathetic to the MB. There is little confidence that the troops will turn on their brothers if ordered to do so. By "blinking" yesterday and allowing the MB to win, they in essence lost. The MB is in full control.

Israel which can expect increasing problems from Hamas and, despite protestations to the opposite, it's treaty with Egypt. Any business relations between Israel and Egypt, including gas supplies, will come to an abrupt halt shortly.

The US which can expect a disruption of its flyover and Suez arrangements with Egypt as well as its security strategy via-a-vis Israel.

Any lingering hopes of regional stability in the area. All countries in the region will see newly empowered fundamentalist Islamic movements allied with the MB renew their efforts for control in their countries. We can expect to see increasing internal disruptions and security issues in all countries in the region. This will also be true in countries who mistakenly supported the emergence of the MB (Quatar and Saudi). Saudi, in particular, now has an economically failing state with basic idealogical religious differences, and the largest military force in the middle east, on its western border.

More to follow.

[Congressional Record Volume 157, Number 112 (Monday, July 25, 2011)]
[Extensions of Remarks]
[Pages E1396-E1398]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]

                            EGYPT ASSESSMENT
                                 ______

                          HON. ELIOT L. ENGEL
                              of new york
                    in the house of representatives
                         Monday, July 25, 2011

  Mr. ENGEL. Mr. Speaker, I rise to call attention to the Report on a
Trip to Cairo, Egypt, written by R. Leslie Deak, and presented to the
Policy and Planning section of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Mr. Deak is
an American businessman who has spent the last nine years living part
of each year in Egypt. He is on the Board of Advisors of the Center for
a New American Security and is a Trustee of the National Defense
University Foundation.

  This is an interesting and important document, and I commend it to my
colleagues.

            Egypt Assessment: Report on Trip to Cairo, Egypt
                          (By R. Leslie Deak)

                   Presented to J-5 JCS, May 11, 2011

       (Pentagon--Policy and Planning for Joint Chiefs of Staff)

       I just returned from two weeks in Egypt. During my trip, I
     spent most of my time in Cairo reestablishing existing
     contacts and developing contacts with new players in the
     emerging power structure.

       I met with informed figures in the business, political,
     legal, journalism and religious fields. I also had extensive
     contact with our people over there to get their assessment
     and to gauge their views against those from the Egyptians.

       The country is a transition that will likely end in a
     manner not to our liking. There are some efforts that can be
     undertaken at this time to help try to impact the outcome if
     implemented rapidly.

       I have summarized the current situation, explored in more
     depth the key areas of concern and suggested actions that may
     help impact on the outcome.
     First Impressions

       The fall of Mubarak's regime is widely welcomed. There is a
     palpable relief among people that the repression and
     corruption are finally easing. This is mixed with an

     uncertainty about what the future holds. This is very a much
     an Inch Allah moment at all levels that I had contact with.

       The impression of the US is poor. We are viewed as a
     contributory factor to the problems because of our prior
     support for Mubarak and our wavering during the early stages
     of the revolution. Our direct involvement in their affairs is
     not welcomed. Our operating in the background and providing
     support is more acceptable.

[[Page E1397]]

       The society in general is fascinated with the unfolding
     spectacle of arrests, incriminations and the extent of the
     corruption. Politics and then soccer are the subjects
     discussed, in that order. Since there is uncertainty about
     the future, most attention is focused on the past and day-to-
     day life.

       Prices are up by thirty percent from before the revolution
     but people seem to take it in stride. The Government is
     raising public employee salaries dramatically and is hiring
     unemployed workers in great numbers in order to try to
     maintain social stability. Continued and worsening inflation
     in the near term is inevitable and the population is reacting
     accordingly--retaining or acquiring property, jewelry,
     hoarding, converting pounds to foreign currency when
     possible, etc.

       Withdrawal of Egyptian Pounds was just liberalized. Foreign
     currency withdrawals are restricted to the equivalent of
     EL10.000 per day in foreign currency. Transfers abroad are
     restricted to $100,000 maximum per account and need
     individual approval from the Central Bank.

       Tourism, second largest source of external funds after
     Suez, is off by 85%. Although the recent lifting of the USDOS
     Travel Advisory initially helped increase interest in travel
     from the US to Egypt, the recent sectarian conflict has been
     a new setback. The consensus opinion is that travel will not
     recover until the Fall at the earliest assuming that the
     security situation stabilizes by that time.

       Recently, traffic police have returned to the streets in
     Cairo but regular police, special police, detectives and
     prosecutors have not yet returned. Our people have been
     informed by sources they consider reliable, that police
     presence is back up to 65%. Reliable Egyptian sources I spoke
     with put the figure closer to 50%. Police salaries have been
     increased ten-fold (to EL 3,000-4,000 per month) and law
     school graduates are being recruited to become police.
     Internal security is nonoperational and is supposedly being
     overhauled. All US assisted police training programs have
     been suspended over concerns of working with bad actors.

       While Cairo is safe during the daytime, at night there is
     occasionally sporadic gunfire. Travel outside populated areas
     carries dangers of hijacking. There is widespread carrying of
     firearms by the population and no apparent consequence or
     prosecution for use of deadly force in self-defense.

       Politically, the general belief is that things will work
     out and that the Muslim Brotherhood will play a role in the
     country's future but will not dominate. Unfortunately, I do
     not agree with this assessment.
     Where Things are Heading

The following analysis is conjecture on my part. However, I

vetted the conclusions against all of my sources in Egypt and
here and, sadly, found that none could refute them.

Economics

  The country seems to be sliding towards a modified
socialism with the government set to play a significantly
increased role in the economy. We can expect that most, if
not all, of the economic reforms implemented over the last
five years to be rolled back.

  The government is already beginning to abrogate contracts
and seize properties implicated in any dealings with the
prior government. Since the Mubarak regime and their cronies
were involved in every aspect of the economy, no prior
business arrangement is immune--this is especially true where
deals were based on the use of or access to State assets
(land, businesses, natural resources, etc.)

  Another current problem for the private sector is that
there is no place to get a reliable or binding decision on
which to make business judgments since the current Cabinet is
transitional and their decisions are subject to change in the
future.

  The public sector is growing dramatically both in terms of
cost and size as the Supreme Council races to prevent
uprisings from the lower class.

  They recognize that they are going to soon be facing a
massive external liquidity squeeze and are casting about for
any sources of foreign funds available in order to be able to
continue to import essential staples. Their foreign policy
reflects this with their playing off the U.S., Iran and Saudi
to see who will give them money first.

  I believe we can expect increasing economic and,
eventually, social instability due to the deteriorating
economic trends.

Politics

  In my opinion, I see little likelihood of the Muslim
Brotherhood not becoming the dominant force in Egypt in the
near term. This will occur despite the desire by the
population as a whole to have a more representative secular
government.

  To understand this conclusion, some background is in order.

  For the last eighty years, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has
been providing social services to a growing sector of the
population. They provide health care, education, food,
shelter, counseling, adjudicate disputes, etc. This impact
has become especially pronounced over the last thirty years
as increasing resources were diverted from government
services and wound up in the pockets of corrupt officials.
During this time, the MB had developed a highly efficient
network that is well integrated into the society throughout
the country and especially in the poorer areas and in the
rural areas in Upper Egypt (the South) and the Delta.

  The military, which is a conscript army, is largely drawn
from this lower socio-economic half of the population.
Accordingly, they are familiar with, and are largely
sympathetic to, the MB. They do not currently view them as a
threat. In fact, virtually all of the Military officers I
have met over the years are religiously conservative as are
their families.

  An alliance with the MB does not pose an issue for the
military and in fact helps solve two critical issues that the
military faces.

  The first issue is complicity--the military leadership is
assumed to be complicit in all of the corruption and problems
of the old regime. They have been able to shelter almost all
of the ex-military from prosecution, but pressure is mounting
to throw them to the wolves. This does not bode well for the
current leadership and they are focused on protecting
themselves from prosecution with any new civilian government
that they allow to emerge. I believe that they have reached
this accommodation with the MB.

  Secondly, is the issue of the patronage system. The
military controls thirty percent patent of the economy and
much of the land in Egypt. The proceeds from these
enterprises and sale of land are used to provide benefits and
perks to the officer corps so as to maintain loyalty and
discipline. If anything interrupts this arrangement, the
senior staff faces the danger of possible insurrection from
the junior officers. I believe the MB recognizes the need to
maintain this system and has reached an accommodation with
the military to continue it.

  With these two issues apparently resolved, I believe that
the military cleared the path for accelerated elections in
September knowing that the MB would dominate the elections
despite the desire by the opposition forces to see a more
balanced and secular (civil) outcome. They then dissolved the
NDP in order to further strengthen the MB.

  Unfortunately, barring a change in the timing of the
elections or a suspension by the Military due to security
concerns, the MB will sweep the elections simply due to their
organizational capabilities. They recently raised their
public target from 35% to 50% of the seats. I personally
believe that they will ultimately win more than 70% of the
seats. This will place them in position to dominate the
process that will result in a new constitution that has been
mandated as part of the recent referendum.

  Except for the MB, there is no organization with the
capability to get out the vote. The opposition is highly
fragmented and disorganized. There is a possibility that the
old parliamentarians may run for election independently and
serve to weaken the MB, but it is unlikely. The old members
benefitted from their positions in Parliament and under the
current environment will most likely not run (as one told me,
it cost him EGP 5 million to win each election but he could
make EGP 50 million through his position--he has no interest
in exposing his past activities of running again with no
prospect of recovering his investment--I believe this is
representative of the situation in general).

  While this has been going on in the background, much
international and public attention has been kept focused on
the Presidential election. This is a diversion since the new
President will have very proscribed powers. The MB has
indicated that they will not run, but they are negotiating
with the candidates and will throw their weight behind the
one that will assure their interests.

  The recent issue with the Salafis is largely viewed as
manufactured by the MB in order to make the MB appear more
moderate. I would personally expect that the MB and the
military will resolve the Salafi problem once it has served
its purpose.

What Can be Done
  The first thing that needs to be done is to improve our

image with the Egyptian people. We can do this through
     several actions.

       First, we could use our current available resources to help
     locate and freeze funds that belong to the long list of
     individuals under detention or indictment. Publicizing our
     efforts to assist in this manner will be front page news
     throughout the Middle East and will have an enormous positive
     impact on public perception of the U.S. in Egypt. I recommend
     this while at the same time acknowledging the broader impact
     such an action may have on investors from other countries.

       Secondly, we should remain neutral and supportive of the
     election process and their right to set their own destiny
     regardless of the outcome. It will be very important for us
     not to be seen as judgmental of, or in opposition to, the
     outcome of the election. Any perceived effort on our part to
     influence the election will backfire and both damage our
     reputation and adversely impact any individual or group
     perceived to be supported by us.

       This does not mean that we have to sit back and accept the
     long term impact of the elections.

       If we hope to see the situation improve, then the next, and
     immediate, focus should be to ramp up our efforts to work
     with groups that can bring influence to bear on the
     constitutional process. These include the opposition groups,
     the youth groups, the emerging parties, the Copts and the
     military and possibly the new President once we know who it
     is.

       The only way to short-circuit the MB dominating the
     constitutional process after the election is to help the
     opposition organize to focus the issues and bring people out

[[Page E1398]]

     in to the streets again. We can also try to work in the
     background to convince the military that it is in everyone's
     interest to assure a balanced and open constitutional
     process. The street protests will help in this effort.

       To the extent that our assistance is requested, we can also
     work with those domestic change agents with whom contact has
     already been established in order to help them work towards
     an open process so as to assure a fully representational
     political process in the future.

       As long as the constitutional process can be opened up so
     that it is representative, it is likely that the MB will be a
     one-election phenomenon and that we will see an outcome like
     Kuwait. Any group that wins this election is doomed to fail
     because of the deteriorating economic and security situation.
     The only real concern we should have is what happens next. I
     believe that we can have an impact on that outcome which will
     serve the interest of both Egypt and the U.S.

       However, our window of opportunity is closing quickly.
                          ____________________

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT IMPEACHMENT OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

JULY 4, 2013

I am attaching a message sent to all my contacts in the administration during the events yesterday. Please feel free to distribute and share it as you see fit.

The reports of a "coup" in Egypt are a blatant attempt at manipulating the facts to support the Muslim Brotherhood. The military, responding to an estimated 17 million demonstrators called for an effort at inclusiveness by the MB which was summarily rejected. The military has put the widely respected leading judicial authority in charge of the country for an interim period until a new constitution can be formed and a new election process can be undertaken.

Far from staging a coup, the military moved to assure a peaceful transition to a new democratic process.

Below is a plea from one of America's greatest fans and the recipient of the Legion of Merit, our highest military award that can be presented to a foreign national.

Today is a great day in Egypt's journey towards democracy. Do not let yourself be "spun" without learning the facts

Begin forwarded message:

Subject: happy 4th of july

Dear Brother

I am writing to wish you and the American Nation all the best in your celebration of the Independence Day.

It marks the gate to the American democracy that all Egyptians aspire to hopefully attain.

Since i came back i'v been telling the people around me about how supportive U.S is,and what the people of the U.S do for the good of the Egyptian.However the attitude and comments of the U.S government create a discrepancy between what happens and what i say.

Please remember Egypt in your prayers. It is a tough time to my nation, were millions of people went into the streets and squares of Egypt to maintain the Egyptian identity, and to attain democracy, requesting the military support. As President Obama mentioned democracy is not only about elections but about how an elected leader works with an opposition and treats minority groups. And this is what Egyptians aspire.

It is heart breaking to see some of the media portraying the military request from the presidential institution to listen to the people as a coup de Tate.

The Egyptian military is part of the social fabric of the Egyptian nation, and has always been there to it's people, with no greed of power.

Please accept my heartily congratulations in such a glorious day, and keep Egypt in your prayers.

your Brother

MG Mohamed Elkeshky

Egyptian MOD

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT

Thursday, August 15, 2013

EGYPT DEMONSTRATIONS CLEARING OPERATIONS

Monday, July 8, 2013

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT ELECTIONS 2012

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT ELECTIONS 2012

NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION (NDUF) PRAISES ROBERT L. DEAK

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORT TO CONGRESS ON EGYPT 2011

ROBERT L. DEAK REPORTS ON EGYPT IMPEACHMENT OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD